Natural Mortality

Research Summary

Mark and his collaborators have investigated several aspects of modelling natural mortality including what characteristics make it estimable inside the stock assessment model (Maunder and Wong, 2011; Lee et al., 2011), its influence on surplus production models and reference points (Maunder, 2003), and sensitivity of management advice to natural mortality and its misspecification (Punt et al. 2021). In 2021 he co-organized the CAPAM workshop on natural mortality and acted as a guest editor for the Fisheries Research special issue (in prep) and published a review in the special issue (Maunder et al., 2023). Mark developed a general functional representation of age and sex-structured natural mortality and estimated the parameters for bigeye tuna from tagging and sex ratio data using cohort analysis (Ref), which is available in Stock Synthesis (see Maunder et al., 2023). He also used modelling of natural mortality to develop stock-recruitment models (Taylor et al., 2013; Maunder, 2022). His collaborations also included using the estimates of natural mortality inside a stock assessment model as a diagnostic for model misspecification (Piner et al., 2011). Finally, he has conducted extensive research into including covariates in population dynamics models including the modelling of survival (natural mortality). Marks research has illustrated the need to estimate observation (Deriso et al. 2007.) and process error when conducting covariate selection for recruitment or other model processes (Maunder and Watters, 2003) and the related use (Deriso et al., 2008; Maunder and Deriso, 2011) and benefit (Maunder et al., 2015) of state-space models when evaluating covariates. He also investigated methods to deal with missing covariates (Maunder and Deriso, 2010). 

Relevant Papers

Hoyle, S.D., Williams, A.J., Minte-Vera, C.V., Maunder, M.N. 2023. Approaches for estimating natural mortality in tuna stock assessments: Application to global yellowfin tuna stocks. Fisheries Research 257, 106498 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783622002752

Maunder, M.N., Hamel, O.S., Lee, H-H., Piner, K.R., Cope, J.M., Punt, A.E., Ianelli, J.N., Castillo-Jordan, C., Kapur, M.S., 2023. A review of estimation methods for natural mortality and their performance in the context of fishery stock assessment. Fish. Res. 257, 106489. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783622002661?dgcid=author

Maunder, M.N. 2022. Stock-recruitment models from the viewpoint of density-dependent survival and the onset of strong density-dependence when a carrying capacity limit is reached. Fisheries Research 249, 106249. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165783622000261

Punt, A.E., Castillo-Jordán, C., Hamel, O.S., Cope, J.M., Maunder, M.N., Ianelli, J.N. 2021. Consequences of error in natural mortality and its estimation in stock assessment models. Fish. Res. 233, 105759. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783620302769

Maunder, M.N., Deriso, R.B., and Hanson, C.H. 2015. Use of state-space population dynamics models in hypothesis testing: advantages over simple log-linear regressions for modeling survival, illustrated with application to longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys). Fisheries Research, 164: 102–111. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165783614003105

Taylor, I.G., Gertseva, V. Methot, R.D. Jr., and Maunder, M.N. 2013. A stock-recruitment relationship based on pre-recruit survival, illustrated with application to spiny dogfish shark. Fisheries Research 142: 15– 21. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165783612001567

Lee, H-H., Maunder, M.N., Piner, K.R., and Methot, R.D. 2012. Reply to ‘The reliability of estimates of natural mortality from stock assessment models’. Fisheries Research 119-120: 154-155. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165783612000951

Lee, H-H, Maunder, M.N., Piner, K.R., and Methot, R.D. 2011. Estimating natural mortality within a fisheries stock assessment model: an evaluation using simulation analysis based on twelve stock assessments. Fisheries Research, 109: 89–94. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165783611000403

M.N. Maunder, R.A. Wong. 2011. Approaches for estimating natural mortality: Application to summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) in the U.S. mid-Atlantic. Fisheries Research 111: 92– 99. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165783611002335

Maunder, M.N. and Deriso, R.B. 2011. A state–space multistage life cycle model to evaluate population impacts in the presence of density dependence: illustrated with application to delta smelt (Hyposmesus transpacificus) Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 68: 1285–1306. https://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/full/10.1139/f2011-071#.Xp4TTchKjD4

Piner, K.R., Lee, H-H., and Maunder, M.N. 2011. A Simulation-Based Method to Determine Model Misspecification: Examples Using Natural Mortality and Population Dynamics Models. Marine and Coastal Fisheries, 3(1): 336-343. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19425120.2011.611005

Maunder, M.N. and Deriso, R.B. 2010. Dealing with missing covariate data in fishery stock assessment models. Fisheries Research 101: 80-86. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165783609002537

Maunder, M.N., Aires-da-Silva, A. Deriso, R.B., Schaefer, K. and Fuller, D., 2009. Preliminary estimation of age- and sex-specific natural mortality for bigeye tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean by applying cohort analysis with auxiliary information to tagging data. Inter-Amer. Trop. Tuna Comm., Stock Assessment Report, 10: 253-278. https://www.iattc.org/GetAttachment/1f468f0a-ec78-489e-be69-229988f13752/Status%20of%20the%20tuna%20and%20billfish%20stocks%20in%202008

Deriso, R.B., Maunder, M.N., and Pearson, W.H. 2008. Incorporating covariates into fisheries stock assessment models with application to Pacific herring of Prince William Sound, Alaska. Ecological Applications 18(5): 1270-1286. https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1890/07-0708.1

Deriso, R.B., Maunder, M.N., and Skalski, J.R. 2007. Variance estimation in integrated assessment models and its importance for hypothesis testing. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 64: 187-197. https://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/f06-178#.Xp4nR8hKjD4

Maunder, M.N. 2003. Is it time to discard the Schaefer model from the stock assessment scientist’s toolbox? Fisheries Research, 61: 145-149. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165783602002734

Reports

Maunder, M.N., Aires-da-Silva, A., Deriso, R.B., Schaefer, K., and Fuller, D. 2010. Preliminary estimation of age- and sex-specific natural mortality of bigeye tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean by applying cohort analysis with auxiliary information to tagging data. IATTC Stock Assessment Report 10: 253-278.  https://www.iattc.org/GetAttachment/1f468f0a-ec78-489e-be69-229988f13752/No-10-2010_Status-of-the-tuna-and-billfish-stocks-in-2008.pdf

Maunder, M.N. 2009. Proposed formulation for age-specific patterns in natural mortality. In: J. Brodziak, J. Ianelli, K. Lorenzen, and R. D. Methot Jr. Estimating Natural Mortality in Stock Assessment Applications, 24-25.

Aires-da-Silva?, A., Maunder, M., Deriso, R., Piner, K. and Lee, H. 2008. An Evaluation of the Natural Mortality Schedule Assumed in the PBF 2008 Stock Assessment and Proposed Changes for Adult Natural Mortality. ISC/08/PBF-2/04.

Piner, K., Lee, H., Maunder, M. and Aires-da-Silva?, A. 2008. Simulation of the Estimation of M as a Model mis-specification diagnostic. ISC/08/PBF-2/02.